West Bromwich Albion FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities West Bromwich Albion FC 53.7% · Draw 23.3% · Birmingham City FC 23.0% Why West Bromwich Albion FC is favoured West Bromwich Albion FC's Elo (1529) is +35 over Birmingham City FC (1494); low confidence. Recent: West Bromwich Albion FC 4W-2D-2L · Birmingham City FC 2W-5D-1L (last 8). Goal differential per game: West Bromwich Albion FC +0.3, Birmingham City FC +0.1. Form depth West Bromwich Albion FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Birmingham City FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (West Bromwich Albion FC 1.3, Birmingham City FC 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — West Bromwich Albion FC 0W, 3D, Birmingham City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-1, 1-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.