Independiente Santa Fe
vs SC Corinthians Paulista_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–1MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  23.3%

  Fair odds

  4.29

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  21.4%

  Fair odds

  4.67

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  12.7%

  Fair odds

  7.90

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  10.6%

  Fair odds

  9.46

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  9.7%

  Fair odds

  10.28

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.7%

  Fair odds

  17.42

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  4.6%

  Fair odds

  21.83

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  2.4%

  Fair odds

  41.70

Independiente Santa Fe scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -18%

  Joint prob

  3.0%

  Naïve (book)

  3.7%

  Fair odds

  32.93

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +10%

  Joint prob

  3.4%

  Naïve (book)

  3.1%

  Fair odds

  29.30

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -26%

  Joint prob

  9.2%

  Naïve (book)

  12.4%

  Fair odds

  10.88

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +49%

  Joint prob

  15.3%

  Naïve (book)

  10.3%

  Fair odds

  6.52

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.