| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 23.3% | 4.29 | ||
| 0–0 | 21.4% | 4.67 | ||
| 0–2 | 12.7% | 7.90 | ||
| 1–1 | 10.6% | 9.46 | ||
| 1–0 | 9.7% | 10.28 | ||
| 1–2 | 5.7% | 17.42 | ||
| 0–3 | 4.6% | 21.83 | ||
| 2–1 | 2.4% | 41.70 |
Independiente Santa Fe scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 3.0% | 3.7% | -18% | 32.93 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 3.4% | 3.1% | +10% | 29.30 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 9.2% | 12.4% | -26% | 10.88 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 15.3% | 10.3% | +49% | 6.52 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Independiente Santa Fe 41.7% · Draw 25.7% · SC Corinthians Paulista 32.6% Why Independiente Santa Fe is favoured Recent: Independiente Santa Fe 0W-1D-2L · SC Corinthians Paulista 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Independiente Santa Fe -1.0, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.3. Context SC Corinthians Paulista has 18 more days of rest (Independiente Santa Fe 26d, SC Corinthians Paulista 44d).