| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 10.0% | 10.00 | ||
| 1–1 | 9.7% | 10.32 | ||
| 2–0 | 9.7% | 10.34 | ||
| 1–0 | 9.4% | 10.67 | ||
| 3–1 | 6.9% | 14.54 | ||
| 3–0 | 6.7% | 15.03 | ||
| 2–2 | 5.2% | 19.36 | ||
| 1–2 | 5.0% | 19.98 |
Arsenal FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 29.9% | 34.3% | -13% | 3.35 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 41.9% | 36.4% | +15% | 2.39 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 10.1% | 10.3% | -2% | 9.93 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 11.2% | 10.9% | +2% | 8.95 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Arsenal FC 65.6% · Draw 22.2% · Club Atlético de Madrid 12.2% Why Arsenal FC is favoured Arsenal FC's Elo (1799) is +126 over Club Atlético de Madrid (1674); high confidence. Recent: Arsenal FC 5W-3D-2L · Club Atlético de Madrid 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Arsenal FC +0.7, Club Atlético de Madrid -0.1. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Arsenal FC 0W, 2D, Club Atlético de Madrid 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 4-0. Context Arsenal FC has 7 more days of rest (Arsenal FC 54d, Club Atlético de Madrid 47d).