| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2MODE | 6.8% | 14.61 | ||
| 1–3 | 6.8% | 14.68 | ||
| 2–2 | 6.3% | 15.95 | ||
| 2–3 | 6.2% | 16.02 | ||
| 1–4 | 5.1% | 19.66 | ||
| 2–4 | 4.7% | 21.47 | ||
| 1–1 | 4.6% | 21.81 | ||
| 2–1 | 4.2% | 23.81 |
FC Bayern München scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 18.2% | 18.0% | +1% | 5.49 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 19.6% | 19.4% | +1% | 5.09 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 45.1% | 48.1% | -6% | 2.22 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 54.0% | 51.8% | +4% | 1.85 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Bayern München 57.8% · Draw 23.8% · Paris Saint-Germain FC 18.5% Why FC Bayern München is favoured FC Bayern München's Elo (1892) is +74 over Paris Saint-Germain FC (1819); high confidence. Recent: FC Bayern München 8W-1D-1L · Paris Saint-Germain FC 8W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Bayern München +1.7, Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.9. Form depth FC Bayern München: avg 3.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.8 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 4/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.7 total goals (FC Bayern München 2.3, Paris Saint-Germain FC 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Context Paris Saint-Germain FC has 1 more day of rest (FC Bayern München 48d, Paris Saint-Germain FC 49d).