| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0MODE | 12.4% | 8.08 | ||
| 3–0 | 11.0% | 9.10 | ||
| 1–0 | 9.3% | 10.75 | ||
| 2–1 | 8.8% | 11.36 | ||
| 3–1 | 7.8% | 12.79 | ||
| 4–0 | 7.3% | 13.66 | ||
| 1–1 | 6.6% | 15.13 | ||
| 4–1 | 5.2% | 19.21 |
Racing Club de Lens scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 32.7% | 37.1% | -12% | 3.06 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 56.7% | 51.3% | +10% | 1.76 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 4.1% | 3.6% | +12% | 24.60 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 4.3% | 5.0% | -14% | 23.17 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Racing Club de Lens 74.3% · Draw 18.6% · FC Nantes 7.1% Why Racing Club de Lens is favoured Racing Club de Lens's Elo (1623) is +246 over FC Nantes (1377); high confidence. Recent: Racing Club de Lens 4W-3D-3L · FC Nantes 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Racing Club de Lens +0.8, FC Nantes -0.2. Form depth Racing Club de Lens: avg 2.4 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). FC Nantes: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Racing Club de Lens on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Racing Club de Lens 1.8, FC Nantes 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Racing Club de Lens 0W, 2D, FC Nantes 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 3-1, 3-2.