| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1MODE | 11.9% | 8.37 | ||
| 1–0 | 10.7% | 9.38 | ||
| 2–1 | 9.4% | 10.65 | ||
| 2–0 | 8.4% | 11.93 | ||
| 0–1 | 7.6% | 13.16 | ||
| 0–0 | 6.8% | 14.75 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.7% | 14.95 | ||
| 2–2 | 5.3% | 19.02 |
Crystal Palace FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 21.9% | 25.5% | -14% | 4.57 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 28.7% | 24.1% | +19% | 3.49 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 13.1% | 14.5% | -9% | 7.62 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 15.3% | 13.7% | +12% | 6.54 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Crystal Palace FC 49.9% · Draw 26.0% · Everton FC 24.1% Why Crystal Palace FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1514 vs 1513) — winner depends on context. Recent: Crystal Palace FC 4W-2D-4L · Everton FC 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Crystal Palace FC -0.2, Everton FC +0.0. Form depth Crystal Palace FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Everton FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Crystal Palace FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Crystal Palace FC 1.4, Everton FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Crystal Palace FC 0W, 3D, Everton FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-2, 2-1.