| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 15.6% | 6.40 | ||
| 1–1 | 12.1% | 8.24 | ||
| 0–2 | 11.4% | 8.79 | ||
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 9.31 | ||
| 1–2 | 8.8% | 11.32 | ||
| 1–0 | 8.3% | 11.99 | ||
| 0–3 | 5.5% | 18.13 | ||
| 2–1 | 4.7% | 21.21 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 7.4% | 8.3% | -11% | 13.49 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 8.4% | 7.7% | +9% | 11.85 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 18.0% | 22.0% | -19% | 5.57 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 26.2% | 20.5% | +28% | 3.82 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 25.4% · Draw 20.7% · Fulham FC 53.8% Why Fulham FC is favoured Fulham FC's Elo (1507) is +175 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1332); high confidence. Recent: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2W-3D-5L · Fulham FC 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC -0.9, Fulham FC -0.1. Form depth Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Fulham FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Fulham FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0.9, Fulham FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W, 2D, Fulham FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 1-2, 1-4.