Wolverhampton Wanderers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 25.4% · Draw 20.7% · Fulham FC 53.8% Why Fulham FC is favoured Fulham FC's Elo (1507) is +175 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1332); high confidence. Recent: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2W-3D-5L · Fulham FC 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC -0.9, Fulham FC -0.1. Form depth Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Fulham FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Fulham FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0.9, Fulham FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W, 2D, Fulham FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 1-2, 1-4.