Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Genoa CFC
To win
+$98.00
Total payout
$118.00
Joint prob
48.3%
Combined odds
5.90
Fair odds
2.07
Edge
+185.2%
Expected value: +$37.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$37.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Spreads and totals shown for reference only — model probabilities above are for the moneyline outcome, not points margin.
| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 11.6% | 8.66 | ||
| 0–2 | 11.3% | 8.82 | ||
| 1–1 | 10.1% | 9.90 | ||
| 1–2 | 9.9% | 10.09 | ||
| 0–3 | 7.4% | 13.48 | ||
| 1–3 | 6.5% | 15.43 | ||
| 0–0 | 5.9% | 16.99 | ||
| 1–0 | 5.1% | 19.43 |
Genoa CFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 7.9% | 8.1% | -2% | 12.72 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 8.7% | 8.7% | +0% | 11.51 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 26.8% | 31.4% | -15% | 3.73 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 39.8% | 33.8% | +18% | 2.51 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 16.0% | 9.8% | +63% | 6.26 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.3% · fair market: 16.4% · edge: +194.0%
Genoa CFC 48.3% · Draw 26.0% · Como 1907 25.7% +EV: home (194.0%), draw (9.9%)