| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0MODE | 14.4% | 6.94 | ||
| 1–1 | 13.3% | 7.54 | ||
| 0–0 | 12.0% | 8.31 | ||
| 0–1 | 11.1% | 9.04 | ||
| 2–0 | 8.6% | 11.57 | ||
| 2–1 | 7.9% | 12.59 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.1% | 16.41 | ||
| 0–2 | 5.1% | 19.66 |
ACF Fiorentina scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 14.5% | 17.8% | -18% | 6.87 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 19.3% | 15.1% | +28% | 5.17 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 10.0% | 11.8% | -15% | 9.95 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 12.0% | 10.0% | +20% | 8.31 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ACF Fiorentina 49.7% · Draw 25.6% · Genoa CFC 24.8% Why ACF Fiorentina is favoured ACF Fiorentina's Elo (1469) is +14 over Genoa CFC (1455); high confidence. Recent: ACF Fiorentina 4W-4D-2L · Genoa CFC 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: ACF Fiorentina -0.1, Genoa CFC +0.0. Form depth ACF Fiorentina: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Genoa CFC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (ACF Fiorentina 1.0, Genoa CFC 1.1) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — ACF Fiorentina 0W, 5D, Genoa CFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 2-1, 0-1.