| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2MODE | 14.6% | 6.87 | ||
| 0–3 | 13.3% | 7.53 | ||
| 0–1 | 10.7% | 9.39 | ||
| 0–4 | 9.1% | 11.01 | ||
| 1–2 | 7.8% | 12.89 | ||
| 1–3 | 7.1% | 14.14 | ||
| 1–1 | 5.7% | 17.63 | ||
| 0–5 | 5.0% | 20.13 |
Hellas Verona FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 2.3% | 1.9% | +18% | 43.59 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 2.4% | 3.2% | -25% | 41.55 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 28.2% | 32.0% | -12% | 3.55 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 57.7% | 52.6% | +10% | 1.73 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Hellas Verona FC 10.4% · Draw 16.5% · Como 1907 73.0% Why Como 1907 is favoured Como 1907's Elo (1638) is +315 over Hellas Verona FC (1323); high confidence. Recent: Hellas Verona FC 1W-2D-7L · Como 1907 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Hellas Verona FC -0.9, Como 1907 +1.1. Form depth Hellas Verona FC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Como 1907: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Hellas Verona FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Hellas Verona FC 0.7, Como 1907 1.7) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Hellas Verona FC 0W, 5D, Como 1907 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-1, 3-2.