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Model scorecard

Tennis accuracy

Every graded Tennis analysis, sorted by most recent. No cherry-picking; no filtered wins.

Graded
300
Accuracy
58.7%
Brier (↓)
0.482
Log loss (↓)
0.675
ECE (↓)
3.7%

ECE(expected calibration error) is the count-weighted average gap between confidence and outcome — < 5% is well-calibrated, > 10% means the model's probabilities can't be trusted at face value yet. Independent of accuracy: a model can be 65% accurate and 25% mis-calibrated.

Trend (30-match rolling)

30-match rolling
Brier 0.498↑ 0.054 vs start
Accuracy
53.3%
Brier (↓ better) Accuracy (↑ better)

Calibration (predicted probability → actual win rate)

Bucket 50–60% • predicted 53.6% • actual 57.1% • n=259Bucket 60–70% • predicted 63.1% • actual 66.7% • n=39Bucket 70–80% • predicted 74.2% • actual 100.0% • n=2
0%50%100%
Predicted probability →
Diagonal = perfect calibration. Above it = under-confident, below = over-confident.
Dot size = sample share. Faint dots have fewer than 10 predictions; treat with care.

Above the dashed diagonal = under-confident on this sport; below = over-confident (the dangerous direction).

Per-bucket detail

Each dot is one decile of model confidence. Sit on the diagonal = well-calibrated. Below the diagonal = the model is over-confident at that confidence level (the worst regime for staking).
calibration dots (size ∝ sample count)perfect calibration
0%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%100%

Where the model is sharpest

LeagueGradedAccuracyMean Brier
ATP Tour16959.8%0.483
WTA Tour13157.3%0.482

Sorted by sample count. Low Brier + high sample count = the model understands this league.

Match log (300)

DateMatchProb assignedBrierResult
Jan 3
Vera Zvonareva vs Alison Riske Amritraj
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 3
Viktorija Golubic vs Lauren Davis
50.2%0.496✓ right
Jan 3
Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove vs Seone Mendez
47.6%0.549✕ wrong
Jan 3
Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Arina Rodionova
47.9%0.543✕ wrong
Jan 3
0.5260.444PredictedActual
Simona Halep vs Destanee Aiava
56.6%
0.377
✓ right
Jan 3
Simona Halep vs Veronika Kudermetova
52.0%0.461✓ right
Jan 3
Amanda Anisimova vs Daria Kasatkina
52.0%0.461✓ right
Jan 3
Elena Rybakina vs Misaki Doi
45.4%0.596✕ wrong
Jan 10
Paula Badosa vs Jelena Ostapenko
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 10
Ons Jabeur vs Astra Sharma
52.3%0.455✓ right
Jan 10
Petra Kvitova vs Arantxa Rus
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 10
Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Magdalena Frech
50.3%0.494✓ right
Jan 10
Anett Kontaveit vs Shuai Zhang
52.4%0.453✓ right
Jan 10
Caroline Garcia vs Jessica Pegula
50.0%0.500✓ right
Jan 10
Jaqueline Cristian vs Priscilla Hon
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 10
Daria Kasatkina vs Elise Mertens
54.6%0.413✓ right
Jan 10
Belinda Bencic vs Oceane Dodin
49.9%0.502✕ wrong
Jan 10
Paula Badosa vs Ajla Tomljanovic
48.0%0.541✕ wrong
Jan 10
Ons Jabeur vs Petra Kvitova
52.1%0.459✓ right
Jan 10
Anett Kontaveit vs Elena Gabriela Ruse
49.6%0.508✕ wrong
Jan 10
Daria Kasatkina vs Garbine Muguruza
56.6%0.376✓ right
Jan 10
Paula Badosa vs Belinda Bencic
48.0%0.541✕ wrong
Jan 10
Anett Kontaveit vs Ons Jabeur
50.1%0.498✓ right
Jan 10
Barbora Krejcikova vs Caroline Garcia
52.3%0.455✓ right
Jan 10
Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina
43.9%0.629✕ wrong
Jan 10
Barbora Krejcikova vs Anett Kontaveit
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 10
Paula Badosa vs Barbora Krejcikova
50.6%0.489✓ right
Jan 10
Madison Keys vs Elina Svitolina
52.4%0.453✓ right
Jan 10
Tereza Martincova vs Dayana Yastremska
47.7%0.547✕ wrong
Jan 10
Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Alize Cornet
54.4%0.416✓ right
Jan 10
Liudmila Samsonova vs Mayar Sherif
50.0%0.500✓ right
Jan 10
Madison Keys vs Alison Riske Amritraj
56.6%0.377✓ right
Jan 10
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Arthur Rinderknech
57.0%0.369✓ right
Jan 10
Arthur Rinderknech vs Corentin Moutet
45.6%0.591✕ wrong
Jan 10
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Marin Cilic
54.4%0.417✓ right
Jan 10
Corentin Moutet vs Thiago Monteiro
47.4%0.554✕ wrong
Jan 10
Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov
43.6%0.637✕ wrong
Jan 10
Marin Cilic vs Tommy Paul
47.6%0.549✕ wrong
Jan 10
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Aleksandar Vukic
61.0%0.304✓ right
Jan 10
Thiago Monteiro vs Gael Monfils
39.3%0.738✕ wrong
Jan 10
Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics
52.2%0.457✓ right
Jan 10
Karen Khachanov vs Gianluca Mager
52.0%0.461✓ right
Jan 10
Arthur Rinderknech vs Soon Woo Kwon
50.7%0.486✓ right
Jan 10
Tommy Paul vs Benjamin Bonzi
52.5%0.452✓ right
Jan 10
Marin Cilic vs Jaume Munar
50.2%0.496✓ right
Jan 10
Aleksandar Vukic vs Steve Johnson
45.6%0.592✕ wrong
Jan 10
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs John Isner
62.5%0.282✓ right
Jan 10
Thiago Monteiro vs Yoshihito Nishioka
52.9%0.444✓ right
Jan 10
Gianluca Mager vs Egor Gerasimov
45.4%0.596✕ wrong
Jan 10
Arthur Rinderknech vs Mackenzie Mcdonald
53.0%0.442✓ right
Jan 10
Soon Woo Kwon vs Lloyd Harris
47.7%0.546✕ wrong
Jan 10
Daniel Evans vs Maxime Cressy
47.4%0.553✕ wrong
Jan 10
Reilly Opelka vs Brandon Nakashima
45.4%0.596✕ wrong
Jan 10
Andy Murray vs David Goffin
50.2%0.495✓ right
Jan 10
Aslan Karatsev vs Miomir Kecmanovic
56.7%0.374✓ right
Jan 17
Madison Keys vs Jaqueline Cristian
62.9%0.275✓ right
Jan 17
Qiang Wang vs Alison Van Uytvanck
52.2%0.457✓ right
Jan 17
Ashleigh Barty vs Camila Giorgi
58.9%0.338✓ right
Jan 17
Amanda Anisimova vs Naomi Osaka
54.2%0.420✓ right
Jan 17
Jessica Pegula vs Nuria Parrizas Diaz
46.0%0.583✕ wrong
Jan 17
Maria Sakkari vs Veronika Kudermetova
45.9%0.585✕ wrong
Jan 17
Barbora Krejcikova vs Jelena Ostapenko
56.7%0.376✓ right
Jan 17
Victoria Azarenka vs Elina Svitolina
56.4%0.379✓ right
Jan 17
Madison Keys vs Qiang Wang
60.3%0.315✓ right
Jan 17
Elise Mertens vs Shuai Zhang
54.3%0.418✓ right
Jan 17
Simona Halep vs Danka Kovinic
62.3%0.285✓ right
Jan 17
Alize Cornet vs Tamara Zidansek
41.9%0.676✕ wrong
Jan 17
Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina
46.6%0.571✕ wrong
Jan 17
Sorana Cirstea vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
47.8%0.545✕ wrong
Jan 17
Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova
45.4%0.596✕ wrong
Jan 17
Ashleigh Barty vs Amanda Anisimova
45.8%0.588✕ wrong
Jan 17
Barbora Krejcikova vs Victoria Azarenka
52.3%0.455✓ right
Jan 17
Madison Keys vs Paula Badosa
51.1%0.479✓ right
Jan 17
Danielle Collins vs Elise Mertens
50.2%0.496✓ right
Jan 17
Danielle Collins vs Iga Swiatek
46.0%0.583✕ wrong
Jan 17
Ashleigh Barty vs Danielle Collins
55.8%0.390✓ right
Jan 17
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Salvatore Caruso
50.3%0.494✓ right
Jan 17
Tommy Paul vs Mikhail Kukushkin
54.4%0.415✓ right
Jan 17
Lorenzo Sonego vs Sam Querrey
52.5%0.451✓ right
Jan 17
Gael Monfils vs Federico Coria
55.8%0.391✓ right
Jan 17
Alexander Bublik vs Ernesto Escobedo
47.6%0.549✕ wrong
Jan 17
Pedro Martinez vs Federico Delbonis
50.9%0.482✓ right
Jan 17
Cristian Garin vs Facundo Bagnis
50.1%0.497✓ right
Jan 17
Sebastian Korda vs Cameron Norrie
56.5%0.378✓ right
Jan 17
Corentin Moutet vs Lucas Pouille
54.2%0.419✓ right
Jan 17
Tallon Griekspoor vs Fabio Fognini
54.6%0.412✓ right
Jan 17
Dominik Koepfer vs Carlos Taberner
47.8%0.545✕ wrong
Jan 17
Soon Woo Kwon vs Holger Rune
52.5%0.450✓ right
Jan 17
Denis Shapovalov vs Laslo Djere
52.2%0.457✓ right
Jan 17
Hubert Hurkacz vs Egor Gerasimov
54.0%0.424✓ right
Jan 17
Adrian Mannarino vs James Duckworth
50.5%0.491✓ right
Jan 17
Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Nikola Milojevic
47.8%0.544✕ wrong
Jan 17
Aslan Karatsev vs Jaume Munar
56.4%0.380✓ right
Jan 17
Karen Khachanov vs Denis Kudla
54.2%0.419✓ right
Jan 17
Benjamin Bonzi vs Peter Gojowczyk
50.3%0.493✓ right
Jan 17
Yannick Hanfmann vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
36.4%0.809✕ wrong
Jan 17
Diego Schwartzman vs Filip Krajinovic
50.2%0.496✓ right
Jan 17
Denis Shapovalov vs Soon Woo Kwon
54.4%0.417✓ right
Jan 17
Adrian Mannarino vs Hubert Hurkacz
42.1%0.670✕ wrong
Jan 17
Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz
48.7%0.526✕ wrong