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Model scorecard

NBA accuracy

Every graded NBA analysis, sorted by most recent. No cherry-picking; no filtered wins.

Graded
300
Accuracy
60.0%
Brier (↓)
0.493
Log loss (↓)
0.694
ECE (↓)
11.9%

ECE(expected calibration error) is the count-weighted average gap between confidence and outcome — < 5% is well-calibrated, > 10% means the model's probabilities can't be trusted at face value yet. Independent of accuracy: a model can be 65% accurate and 25% mis-calibrated.

🔥Current streak: 2 calls right in a row

Trend (30-match rolling)

30-match rolling
Brier 0.483↓ 0.001 vs start
Accuracy
63.3%
Brier (↓ better) Accuracy (↑ better)

Calibration (predicted probability → actual win rate)

Bucket 50–60% • predicted 55.4% • actual 54.4% • n=68Bucket 60–70% • predicted 65.6% • actual 53.0% • n=83Bucket 70–80% • predicted 75.0% • actual 58.3% • n=60Bucket 80–90% • predicted 84.4% • actual 58.5% • n=53Bucket 90–100% • predicted 93.8% • actual 91.7% • n=36
0%50%100%
Predicted probability →
Diagonal = perfect calibration. Above it = under-confident, below = over-confident.
Dot size = sample share. Faint dots have fewer than 10 predictions; treat with care.

Above the dashed diagonal = under-confident on this sport; below = over-confident (the dangerous direction).

Per-bucket detail

Each dot is one decile of model confidence. Sit on the diagonal = well-calibrated. Below the diagonal = the model is over-confident at that confidence level (the worst regime for staking).
calibration dots (size ∝ sample count)perfect calibration
0%25%50%75%100%

Match log (300)

DateMatchProb assignedBrierResult
Oct 29
Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers
59.5%0.328✓ right
Oct 29
Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers
61.7%0.294✓ right
Oct 29
Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets
33.0%0.897✕ wrong
Oct 29
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
36.1%0.816✕ wrong
Oct 30
0.8240.2160%25%50%75%100%PredictedActual
Utah Jazz vs Sacramento Kings
44.9%
0.607
✕ wrong
Oct 30
Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans
69.7%0.183✓ right
Jan 5
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets
97.2%0.002✓ right
Jan 5
Orlando Magic vs Utah Jazz
19.1%1.309✕ wrong
Jan 6
Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers
69.8%0.182✓ right
Jan 6
Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings
30.3%0.973✕ wrong
Jan 7
Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns
27.3%1.058✕ wrong
Jan 7
Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers
80.7%0.075✓ right
Jan 7
Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks
64.1%0.257✓ right
Jan 7
New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic
21.9%1.221✕ wrong
Jan 7
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers
64.0%0.259✓ right
Jan 7
Minnesota Timberwolves vs LA Clippers
54.4%0.415✓ right
Jan 9
Milwaukee Bucks vs San Antonio Spurs
71.9%0.158✓ right
Mar 22
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte Hornets
98.0%0.001✓ right
Mar 22
San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers
75.3%0.122✓ right
Apr 10
Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
59.6%0.327✓ right
Apr 10
Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans
92.9%0.010✓ right
Apr 10
Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
67.6%0.210✓ right
Apr 10
New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors
75.8%0.117✓ right
Apr 11
Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic
70.5%0.174✓ right
Oct 27
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings
70.7%0.172✓ right
Oct 27
Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
31.7%0.932✕ wrong
Mar 20
San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks
30.5%0.966✕ wrong
Feb 3
LA Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers
25.6%1.108✕ wrong
Feb 4
Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets
75.2%0.123✓ right
Feb 4
Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz
22.9%1.190✕ wrong
Feb 4
Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks
79.4%0.085✓ right
Feb 4
Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Lakers
67.0%0.218✓ right
Nov 18
Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls
10.5%1.602✕ wrong
Nov 20
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors
54.7%0.411✓ right
Nov 20
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards
97.9%0.001✓ right
Nov 20
New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets
92.3%0.012✓ right
Nov 20
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings
97.4%0.001✓ right
Nov 20
Portland Trail Blazers vs Chicago Bulls
42.7%0.657✕ wrong
Nov 21
Orlando Magic vs LA Clippers
69.1%0.190✓ right
Nov 21
Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings
66.0%0.231✓ right
Nov 21
Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers
15.7%1.421✕ wrong
Nov 21
San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks
63.5%0.267✓ right
Nov 22
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers
85.8%0.040✓ right
Nov 22
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
5.0%1.803✕ wrong
Nov 22
Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards
95.4%0.004✓ right
Nov 22
Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat
39.4%0.735✕ wrong
Oct 31
Memphis Grizzlies vs Brooklyn Nets
32.9%0.902✕ wrong
Oct 31
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
77.2%0.104✓ right
Nov 3
Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
42.8%0.654✕ wrong
Nov 3
Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
65.7%0.236✓ right
Nov 3
San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves
60.3%0.316✓ right
Mar 20
Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland Cavaliers
23.4%1.173✕ wrong
Mar 20
Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks
18.4%1.331✕ wrong
Mar 22
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans
92.2%0.012✓ right
Mar 22
Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics
89.5%0.022✓ right
Mar 22
Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers
25.3%1.116✕ wrong
Mar 22
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets
49.7%0.507✕ wrong
Jan 28
Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans
96.2%0.003✓ right
Jan 29
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves
54.7%0.411✓ right
Jan 29
Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors
74.3%0.133✓ right
Jan 29
Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs
32.6%0.907✕ wrong
Jan 30
Philadelphia 76ers vs Sacramento Kings
83.0%0.058✓ right
Jan 30
Phoenix Suns vs Detroit Pistons
49.9%0.502✕ wrong
Jan 30
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder
38.6%0.755✕ wrong
Jan 31
Washington Wizards vs Los Angeles Lakers
67.9%0.206✓ right
Jan 31
Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors
50.1%0.497✓ right
Jan 31
Boston Celtics vs Sacramento Kings
91.7%0.014✓ right
Jan 31
New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers
71.5%0.163✓ right
Oct 27
Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks
58.6%0.342✓ right
Apr 9
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers
32.9%0.900✕ wrong
Apr 9
New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics
46.0%0.582✕ wrong
Apr 10
Houston Rockets vs Philadelphia 76ers
78.0%0.096✓ right
Apr 10
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers
67.4%0.212✓ right
Apr 10
Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons
39.1%0.741✕ wrong
Apr 10
Washington Wizards vs Miami Heat
79.6%0.083✓ right
Apr 11
Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets
73.3%0.142✓ right
Apr 11
San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks
97.9%0.001✓ right
Apr 11
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
41.3%0.690✕ wrong
Apr 11
Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
19.9%1.282✕ wrong
Nov 4
New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks
32.3%0.916✕ wrong
Nov 4
Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic
65.6%0.236✓ right
Nov 5
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks
86.2%0.038✓ right
Nov 5
Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors
56.1%0.385✓ right
Nov 5
Detroit Pistons vs Los Angeles Lakers
54.8%0.409✓ right
Nov 5
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics
54.6%0.413✓ right
Nov 5
Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies
59.5%0.328✓ right
Nov 11
Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors
74.1%0.135✓ right
Nov 12
Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers
70.5%0.175✓ right
Nov 12
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards
82.2%0.064✓ right
Nov 12
New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets
50.6%0.488✓ right
Nov 12
Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Clippers
73.4%0.142✓ right
Nov 12
San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
53.1%0.440✓ right
Nov 28
Phoenix Suns vs Brooklyn Nets
31.0%0.953✕ wrong
Nov 28
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
58.2%0.349✓ right
Dec 14
Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs
49.0%0.520✕ wrong
Dec 14
Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks
67.6%0.210✓ right
Nov 18
Philadelphia 76ers vs LA Clippers
38.3%0.762✕ wrong
Dec 24
Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks
52.2%0.457✓ right
Dec 24
Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers
20.7%1.257✕ wrong
Jan 26
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Houston Rockets
24.8%1.130✕ wrong