| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1MODE | 11.3% | 8.84 | ||
| 1–0 | 11.1% | 8.98 | ||
| 2–1 | 9.8% | 10.23 | ||
| 2–0 | 9.6% | 10.39 | ||
| 0–1 | 6.5% | 15.29 | ||
| 0–0 | 6.4% | 15.54 | ||
| 1–2 | 5.7% | 17.41 | ||
| 3–1 | 5.6% | 17.74 |
Levante UD scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 24.2% | 28.3% | -14% | 4.12 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 33.3% | 27.9% | +19% | 3.01 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 10.8% | 11.6% | -7% | 9.22 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 12.3% | 11.5% | +7% | 8.11 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Levante UD 43.6% · Draw 24.8% · CA Osasuna 31.6% Why Levante UD is favoured CA Osasuna's Elo (1495) is +40 over Levante UD (1455); high confidence. Recent: Levante UD 4W-3D-3L · CA Osasuna 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Levante UD -0.2, CA Osasuna -0.2. Form depth Levante UD: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). CA Osasuna: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Levante UD 1.3, CA Osasuna 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Levante UD 0W, 2D, CA Osasuna 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 3-1, 0-0.