| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–2MODE | 7.2% | 13.98 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.9% | 14.43 | ||
| 2–1 | 5.9% | 16.99 | ||
| 2–3 | 5.8% | 17.25 | ||
| 1–1 | 5.7% | 17.54 | ||
| 1–3 | 5.6% | 17.80 | ||
| 3–2 | 4.9% | 20.32 | ||
| 3–1 | 4.0% | 24.70 |
Sevilla FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 26.0% | 26.9% | -3% | 3.84 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 29.0% | 27.9% | +4% | 3.44 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 35.1% | 37.2% | -6% | 2.85 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 38.6% | +5% | 2.47 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 6.8% | 3.4% | +101% | 14.62 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sevilla FC 39.5% · Draw 23.6% · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 36.9% Why Sevilla FC is favoured Real Sociedad de Fútbol's Elo (1504) is +79 over Sevilla FC (1425); high confidence. Recent: Sevilla FC 2W-3D-5L · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sevilla FC -0.7, Real Sociedad de Fútbol -0.2. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sevilla FC 0W, 2D, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-1, 0-2.