| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 9.2% | 10.82 | ||
| 1–1 | 7.8% | 12.82 | ||
| 3–1 | 7.3% | 13.70 | ||
| 2–0 | 6.7% | 14.84 | ||
| 2–2 | 6.3% | 15.78 | ||
| 1–0 | 5.7% | 17.59 | ||
| 1–2 | 5.4% | 18.69 | ||
| 3–0 | 5.3% | 18.80 |
RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 36.2% | 40.1% | -10% | 2.76 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 42.7% | +10% | 2.14 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 14.4% | 14.5% | -1% | 6.96 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 15.9% | 15.5% | +3% | 6.30 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 10.2% | 5.4% | +89% | 9.80 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
RC Celta de Vigo 57.8% · Draw 24.1% · Elche CF 18.1%