Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · San Antonio Spurs
To win
+$22.40
Total payout
$42.40
Joint prob
50.0%
Combined odds
2.12
Fair odds
2.00
Edge
+6.0%
Expected value: +$1.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Spreads and totals shown for reference only — model probabilities above are for the moneyline outcome, not points margin.
| Line | Model | Over | Under | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over/Under 215.5 total points Projected 136.1 pts | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Over/Under 220.5 total points Projected 136.1 pts | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Over/Under 225.5 total points Projected 136.1 pts | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Over/Under 230.5 total points Projected 136.1 pts | 0.0% | – | – | — |
| Line | Model | Over | Under | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home team over 105.5 Team μ 65.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Home team over 110.5 Team μ 65.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Home team over 115.5 Team μ 65.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Home team over 120.5 Team μ 65.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Away team over 105.5 Team μ 71.1 | 0.1% | – | – | — | |
Away team over 110.5 Team μ 71.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Away team over 115.5 Team μ 71.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — | |
Away team over 120.5 Team μ 71.1 | 0.0% | – | – | — |
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.0% · fair market: 46.1% · edge: +8.6%
Model probabilities New York Knicks 50.0% · San Antonio Spurs 50.0% Why San Antonio Spurs is favoured San Antonio Spurs's Elo (1904) is +76 over New York Knicks (1827); high confidence. Recent: New York Knicks 5W-5L · San Antonio Spurs 4W-6L (last 10). Point differential per game: New York Knicks +3.5, San Antonio Spurs -3.3. Form depth New York Knicks: avg 22.8 pts scored, 19.3 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). San Antonio Spurs: avg 113.4 pts scored, 116.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). San Antonio Spurs on a 2-match winning streak. +EV vs market away: model 50.0% vs market 46.1% (edge +8.6%, suggested Kelly +5.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.