| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 18.4% | 5.44 | ||
| 0–0 | 15.7% | 6.37 | ||
| 1–1 | 12.5% | 7.99 | ||
| 0–2 | 10.8% | 9.29 | ||
| 1–0 | 10.7% | 9.35 | ||
| 1–2 | 7.3% | 13.65 | ||
| 2–1 | 4.3% | 23.47 | ||
| 0–3 | 4.2% | 23.83 |
Leeds United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 6.1% | 7.3% | -16% | 16.29 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 7.1% | 6.1% | +17% | 14.03 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 12.7% | 16.2% | -22% | 7.89 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 18.4% | 13.5% | +37% | 5.42 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Leeds United FC 31.4% · Draw 23.1% · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 45.6% Why Brighton & Hove Albion FC is favoured Brighton & Hove Albion FC's Elo (1603) is +97 over Leeds United FC (1506); high confidence. Recent: Leeds United FC 3W-5D-2L · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Leeds United FC +0.4, Brighton & Hove Albion FC +1.0. Form depth Leeds United FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Brighton & Hove Albion FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Leeds United FC 1.0, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Leeds United FC 0W, 4D, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 2-2, 1-0.